neuroking
11-10-2003, 09:01 PM
I posted this on MacOS Rumors in response to abnoxiously narrowminded Mac user comments in regards to a new Newton rumor (yes, the rumors is still going strong!)
I jumped the Apple ship after my PB G3 (Wallstreet) for various reasons, but still keep up on the rumor mill and news. Having been a Newtonian (2000 upgraded to the 2100), and having been on the PC side now for 6-7 years it has come to amaze me. What has? That Windows sucks so much? That uncreative ppl use Windows, and hipsters use Macs? No, no. It's the shear obliviousness of Mac users that is amazing. Sure, call it flaimbait, up to this it is. But face it kids. Those of us that made it through MacOS 7.5.2 are allowed to act like grumpy old-timers. Now for the on-topic part...
First, Jobs hated the Newton. He killed the Newton. He has an ego the size of a planet, and would stab himself in the eye with a spork before admitting he was wrong to do something. Those of you hoping that logic will prevail in the Jobs-mos, face the facts. Ain't happening.
Second, Apple isn't 'revolutionary'. I'm sorry. I love macs, but changing the PC case was inevitable. Maybe Apple made the first AIO pc, but that was a play that was taken from a much much much older playbook. It's called a terminal. Minimum footprint, usable but not excessive funtionality. Games that played on the iMac at a reasonable speed were few and far between, which is saying alot, since mac games at the time were few and far between (even with the 2nd generation of renewed game support - go sprockets!)
Third, if Apple isn't revolutionary, what is it? I would say PCs are 'evolutionary', which is why there are 40 versions of every component. Tiny adjustments here and there. Apple is full blown punctuated equilibrium in a design/marketing suit. Apple doesn't wait for nature (trial and error or consumer feedback) to do the job. They prefer a comet strike that wipes out all vestige of the old products outer-most shell. Revolutionary? Nah. Not like they run on gumdrops and dreams. But when they change things, they do it right the first time, after waiting almost too long. And they make a huge deal out of it (and rightly so).
Fourth, Job-atollah has been saying smartphones are the way to go? Really? You mean, several devices in one? Wait, like a 'mobile digital hub'? What a stretch... Is there anyone here that REALLY doesn't think that this is something every company knows? Right now the limitations are tech based (when was 3G supposed to debut? What is decent digital cell converage like in the US?) Symbian has been around since '98-'99. Remember the old Kyocera PalmOS phone?
Fifth, the idea that the pda market is 'saturated'. So is the PC market. Better stop making computers, too. M$ saw that they were getting a late start, and what did they do? Jumped right in with a bunch of junky Personal Digital Bricks. Last I checked they were neck and neck with PalmOS. At least Apple has a great foundation with the Newton OS. They have integrated wireless in most of their shipping products (I would assume a large number of users opt for the wireless and BT options), BT has matured, 802.11b is widespread, both are available in cheap single chips. These are the exact reasons Apple SHOULD enter the PDA market. They are the masters of rebadging older technology and throwing on an amazing interface. They've waited so long that now Sony is their only real PDA threat, and the deciding factor would be the OS. Apple doesn't like competition in the design department and there's little they can do with the PDA form factor that Sony and the new Palms haven't done. Thus the Apple Eye for the PC Guy makeover will be extremely difficult. Even in the smartphone department, the SE P900 is f$%^ing sweet. Improving it would be VERY difficult.
So what does this all mean? Apple has their work cut out for them. In the past they have relied on relaunching old ideas in a fresh, well integrated, and easy to use package. The problem? Everyone else has caught on. Tech was once geek, Apple made it chic. But now what?
Launch a PDA?
Pros- Good groundwork (I have still never seen anything close to the accuracy of the Newton HWR), would have great design, effortless sycing and communication with Apple products, considered a must have type fo device by nearly all that carry them.
Cons- Design is limited by form facator, which is limited by currently available tech, which is being excellently eploited by other companies, very late to the game, anti-PDA Jobs-onian leadership, most people that need them, already have them.
But note that the digital hub lacks two very important secondary hubs - mobile and home entertainment integration hubs. MP3s on your computer are nice. On your stereo - nicer. Games and videos on your mac are nice. On your plasma? Much nicer.
If you have't caught on by now, I'll just spit it out. Apple and Sony need to collide. Think about it. Sony is the only REAL competition threat to Apple in the design front, they are the only ones willing to take big design risks, which usually pay off, and their entire computer line, aside from their Clies and maybe a VAIO or two, is drek. They have all the vision in the world on the integration of media and computers, and the resources to take advantage of all the aspects Apple lacks - home theatre, digital imaging, digital video, and phones. The pieces of the puzzle fit _perfectly_. Both have their fanboys, which is more than enough to say, bring Apple back from the dead with the iMac, and keep the idiotically priced MemoryStick popular. And where's Sony's HD based MP3 player? None exist. Today they announced a video/audio HD based player. Notice how they each try to avoid each others markets?
I know rumors are out there on the topic, but if you look at the way things have progressed over the past few years, you have to start thinking that this is not coincidence. Maybe Apple is shying away from anything Sony-like because the competition would be so fierce. But both are respecting the other's boundaries.
I think an Apple-Sony Alliance would be the single most powerful technology lifestyle alignment. I really had to grapple for words to even describe it. They could easily own the entire electronics makeup of many, many houses.
The infomercial:
Bobby's G5 desktop is streaming MP3s and mpegs to the family PSX wirelessly (which is also the DVR and DVD player). He downloads a couple DVRed episodes of the Simpsons, inserts his sister's head on Marge's shoulders in iMovie and sends the video back to the Sony Plasma to play in the PIP, invoking a screech from his sister. He gets a call on his SonyApple smartphone, (caller ID appears on your TV and PC screen if you like). It's Billy from down the street! Bobby gets off the cell, (save your minutes, Bobby) and up pops the iChat window as the iSight camera clicks on. What's that Billy? A challenge? To the Sony Plasma, where the Sony PSX has received the challenge from Bobby's G5. Up pops EyeToy, and Bobby swats badgers back and forth at Billy, or whatever weirdo games that thing plays. Uh oh, time for homework - back to the computer to do that faux studying that usually involves some animated dinosaur on an unbranded web browser! In walks dad. The BT from his iClie smartphone syncs up his date book as he enters the room, and a reminder appears on the Plasma, along with his missed calls. He almost forgot! Bobby has a soccer game! Off to the park (but not before the stock quotes and daily news are silently updated on Dad's iClie smartphone). Dad grabs the Sony Handycam, decides to use the iClie smartphone for some quick snaps of the game. Oh, and the iPod for music. Because children playing soccer is fun for 20 seconds. Then you realize that it's pretty much a bunch of underdeveloped animals hoping seizure-like movements knock the ball in the goal enough times that dad doesn't have to make up a childhood that never existed to calm the aforementioned, now sobbing and buggery, animal. Dad and Bobby get home. Billy calls to gloat over the soccer game. Bobby hacks Billy's AIBO, and Billy falls to the ground in pain as the mechanical dog munches at his nads. Father and son laugh as the image fades out.
Anyway, my $.02, but I think it's closer to a good $1.50.
Brandon
I jumped the Apple ship after my PB G3 (Wallstreet) for various reasons, but still keep up on the rumor mill and news. Having been a Newtonian (2000 upgraded to the 2100), and having been on the PC side now for 6-7 years it has come to amaze me. What has? That Windows sucks so much? That uncreative ppl use Windows, and hipsters use Macs? No, no. It's the shear obliviousness of Mac users that is amazing. Sure, call it flaimbait, up to this it is. But face it kids. Those of us that made it through MacOS 7.5.2 are allowed to act like grumpy old-timers. Now for the on-topic part...
First, Jobs hated the Newton. He killed the Newton. He has an ego the size of a planet, and would stab himself in the eye with a spork before admitting he was wrong to do something. Those of you hoping that logic will prevail in the Jobs-mos, face the facts. Ain't happening.
Second, Apple isn't 'revolutionary'. I'm sorry. I love macs, but changing the PC case was inevitable. Maybe Apple made the first AIO pc, but that was a play that was taken from a much much much older playbook. It's called a terminal. Minimum footprint, usable but not excessive funtionality. Games that played on the iMac at a reasonable speed were few and far between, which is saying alot, since mac games at the time were few and far between (even with the 2nd generation of renewed game support - go sprockets!)
Third, if Apple isn't revolutionary, what is it? I would say PCs are 'evolutionary', which is why there are 40 versions of every component. Tiny adjustments here and there. Apple is full blown punctuated equilibrium in a design/marketing suit. Apple doesn't wait for nature (trial and error or consumer feedback) to do the job. They prefer a comet strike that wipes out all vestige of the old products outer-most shell. Revolutionary? Nah. Not like they run on gumdrops and dreams. But when they change things, they do it right the first time, after waiting almost too long. And they make a huge deal out of it (and rightly so).
Fourth, Job-atollah has been saying smartphones are the way to go? Really? You mean, several devices in one? Wait, like a 'mobile digital hub'? What a stretch... Is there anyone here that REALLY doesn't think that this is something every company knows? Right now the limitations are tech based (when was 3G supposed to debut? What is decent digital cell converage like in the US?) Symbian has been around since '98-'99. Remember the old Kyocera PalmOS phone?
Fifth, the idea that the pda market is 'saturated'. So is the PC market. Better stop making computers, too. M$ saw that they were getting a late start, and what did they do? Jumped right in with a bunch of junky Personal Digital Bricks. Last I checked they were neck and neck with PalmOS. At least Apple has a great foundation with the Newton OS. They have integrated wireless in most of their shipping products (I would assume a large number of users opt for the wireless and BT options), BT has matured, 802.11b is widespread, both are available in cheap single chips. These are the exact reasons Apple SHOULD enter the PDA market. They are the masters of rebadging older technology and throwing on an amazing interface. They've waited so long that now Sony is their only real PDA threat, and the deciding factor would be the OS. Apple doesn't like competition in the design department and there's little they can do with the PDA form factor that Sony and the new Palms haven't done. Thus the Apple Eye for the PC Guy makeover will be extremely difficult. Even in the smartphone department, the SE P900 is f$%^ing sweet. Improving it would be VERY difficult.
So what does this all mean? Apple has their work cut out for them. In the past they have relied on relaunching old ideas in a fresh, well integrated, and easy to use package. The problem? Everyone else has caught on. Tech was once geek, Apple made it chic. But now what?
Launch a PDA?
Pros- Good groundwork (I have still never seen anything close to the accuracy of the Newton HWR), would have great design, effortless sycing and communication with Apple products, considered a must have type fo device by nearly all that carry them.
Cons- Design is limited by form facator, which is limited by currently available tech, which is being excellently eploited by other companies, very late to the game, anti-PDA Jobs-onian leadership, most people that need them, already have them.
But note that the digital hub lacks two very important secondary hubs - mobile and home entertainment integration hubs. MP3s on your computer are nice. On your stereo - nicer. Games and videos on your mac are nice. On your plasma? Much nicer.
If you have't caught on by now, I'll just spit it out. Apple and Sony need to collide. Think about it. Sony is the only REAL competition threat to Apple in the design front, they are the only ones willing to take big design risks, which usually pay off, and their entire computer line, aside from their Clies and maybe a VAIO or two, is drek. They have all the vision in the world on the integration of media and computers, and the resources to take advantage of all the aspects Apple lacks - home theatre, digital imaging, digital video, and phones. The pieces of the puzzle fit _perfectly_. Both have their fanboys, which is more than enough to say, bring Apple back from the dead with the iMac, and keep the idiotically priced MemoryStick popular. And where's Sony's HD based MP3 player? None exist. Today they announced a video/audio HD based player. Notice how they each try to avoid each others markets?
I know rumors are out there on the topic, but if you look at the way things have progressed over the past few years, you have to start thinking that this is not coincidence. Maybe Apple is shying away from anything Sony-like because the competition would be so fierce. But both are respecting the other's boundaries.
I think an Apple-Sony Alliance would be the single most powerful technology lifestyle alignment. I really had to grapple for words to even describe it. They could easily own the entire electronics makeup of many, many houses.
The infomercial:
Bobby's G5 desktop is streaming MP3s and mpegs to the family PSX wirelessly (which is also the DVR and DVD player). He downloads a couple DVRed episodes of the Simpsons, inserts his sister's head on Marge's shoulders in iMovie and sends the video back to the Sony Plasma to play in the PIP, invoking a screech from his sister. He gets a call on his SonyApple smartphone, (caller ID appears on your TV and PC screen if you like). It's Billy from down the street! Bobby gets off the cell, (save your minutes, Bobby) and up pops the iChat window as the iSight camera clicks on. What's that Billy? A challenge? To the Sony Plasma, where the Sony PSX has received the challenge from Bobby's G5. Up pops EyeToy, and Bobby swats badgers back and forth at Billy, or whatever weirdo games that thing plays. Uh oh, time for homework - back to the computer to do that faux studying that usually involves some animated dinosaur on an unbranded web browser! In walks dad. The BT from his iClie smartphone syncs up his date book as he enters the room, and a reminder appears on the Plasma, along with his missed calls. He almost forgot! Bobby has a soccer game! Off to the park (but not before the stock quotes and daily news are silently updated on Dad's iClie smartphone). Dad grabs the Sony Handycam, decides to use the iClie smartphone for some quick snaps of the game. Oh, and the iPod for music. Because children playing soccer is fun for 20 seconds. Then you realize that it's pretty much a bunch of underdeveloped animals hoping seizure-like movements knock the ball in the goal enough times that dad doesn't have to make up a childhood that never existed to calm the aforementioned, now sobbing and buggery, animal. Dad and Bobby get home. Billy calls to gloat over the soccer game. Bobby hacks Billy's AIBO, and Billy falls to the ground in pain as the mechanical dog munches at his nads. Father and son laugh as the image fades out.
Anyway, my $.02, but I think it's closer to a good $1.50.
Brandon